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| Construction machinery industry in the long term will still steady growth |
For the mechanical engineering section, the current market concerns mainly two : in the long run, China's fixed asset investment reduction, and this will certainly affect the entire plate growth; the short term, construction machinery listing Corporation receivables and financial costs of growth is rapidder and hidden risks.
" In fact, the market does not understand this industry, engineering machinery plate especially oligopoly has formed the company, the future is not the lack of space. " The five largest of a fund's investment director tells the author, he argues, can take the caterpillar as example to study the domestic construction machinery listing Corporation. This year alone, although the construction machinery sector as a whole to glide considerably, and brokerage views are quite cautious, but the concrete machinery contrarian growth also brought to market some expectations.
Engineering machinery is not lack of space
Over the past ten years fixed assets investment continued high growth achievements of engineering machinery industry, and the $four trillion stimulus is to enable the industry to the vertex, the market generally questioned without a strong stimulus, engineering machinery is afraid will no longer. This is a concern, but in the market downturn, pessimism will be enlarged.
However, the global machinery giant caterpillar very bullish on China, and actively to build a plant in china. This company thinks, Chinese city is changed had decided to 2025, still need to build more roads, airports and other infrastructure, while the company is also facing great pressure on the stock, but its " win in China " for positioning between 2011 and 2015, one of eight strategic plan.
To the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan " period, China Construction machinery industry sales will reach 900000000000 yuan, an average annual growth rate of about 17%, compared to 27.5% in the past 5 years the average growth rate of 23.8% and over the past 10 years the average growth rate, with the future of the industry overall scale unceasing growth, add fast will gradually fall after a rise, industry in the long term will enter the steady growth.
In addition, the domestic engineering machinery oligopoly pattern is more and more obvious. For example, Sany ( 600031, shares ), ZOOMLION ( 000157, shares ), Xugong, a handful of companies by market capitalisation accounted for most of the industry total market capitalization.
It is worth mentioning that, along with the Sany, ZOOMLION, such as Xu towards internationalization, product quality and continuously improve the competitiveness of brand awareness, increase also recaptured many domestic market share. For example, from Gao Hua Securities data showed, in all of the major categories of construction machinery, excavator is the only still by foreign brands dominate the market, but in recent years, rapid growth after local manufacturers, products and the overall development has been to promote local distributors manufacturers share from 23% in 2006 to 40% in 2011.
The short term, a mechanical engineering major worry is the cash pressure. Haitong Securities ( 600837, shares ) study that, due to the early lever amplification advance sales, accounts receivable in the years 2010~2011 once rapid growth, the domestic construction machinery industry average operating cash flow since 2011 has been negative, causing the industry cash tense situation. Trade accounts receivable and revenue ratio has exceeded the 2005 financial distress and the end of 2008 when financial crisis highs.
The rapid growth of concrete machinery
Since this year, although the mechanical engineering section main listing Corporation net profit drop on average more than 25%, but ZOOMLION has 21.5% growth over the same period, the profit contribution of concrete machinery.
The first half of the year, concrete machinery market strong, weak excavator market. Take ZOOMLION income proportion 58% concrete machinery income increases 52%, the performance of the company growth form supporting.
Concrete machinery, including concrete pump, concrete pump ( pump, pump ), concrete mixing station, concrete mixing Transporter and cloth rod, wide application field and the application in the engineering construction in the late, the short term under the new project is slowing effect. According to the 2011 data, plate in pump and mixer with larger proportion, accounted for 57%.
Some industry experts said, probably on 2012 rate of pump, mixer ( domestic sales and export ) will with keep balance basically 2011, even to achieve positive growth. Gao Hua Securities also judged, three quarters of engineering machinery and equipment industry or since the second half of last year 's low base slow recovery, because policy gradually relaxed will drive investment in infrastructure, but at the same time the real estate investment will continue fatigued and weak, a variety of products, the most optimistic concrete machinery, because of ready mixed concrete in the small and medium-sized city permeability will be increased.
Related media have reported, concrete machinery through the first half of the year mixing ratio, long car to replace short vehicle, sinking to three or four line city needs three aspects factors driving growth in the second half, the lack of new power, so the growth will slow down, is expected to hold slightly posture.
Domestic concrete industry formed the duopoly pattern, wherein the Sany and ZOOMLION occupy more than 90% of the concrete pump car share. UBS Securities judge, the second half of 2012 will not excavator sales have substantial improvement, concrete machinery will perch to wander, although further to the three or four line city penetration, but osmotic space limited.
Caterpillar has stopped in China excavator production capacity expansion plan. In this year the second half, the company plans to continue in the market of Chinese project machine adopt the careful production and stock strategy, is expected to be available in years to gradually will stock falls to an appropriate level. However, it will also make measures to cope with the China boom of construction machinery industry 's sudden rebound. Caterpillar in the semi-annual report is expected, the Chinese government is expected to steady growth measures at the end of 2012 and 2013 project machinery industry growth.
The long term, Societe Generale Securities ( 601377 shares it, is expected in 2012 ~2015 years ), pump truck, mixer truck in the domestic market sales of compound annual growth rate are respectively 6%, 8%, and the industry's gross margin level can still be maintained, domestic sales revenue growth rate will be the basic and sales growth of the flat. In addition, with the domestic concrete machinery products ( especially the pump and mixer truck ) international competitiveness, leading enterprises overseas production base, sales and service network expansion as well as the overseas acquisition tide continuously, export sales and revenue is expected to steady growth
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